China to Have Fewer Tools to Keep Economy Humming in 2017
BEIJING—The monetary easing and strong property market that buoyed China’s economic growth last year are petering out, leaving policy makers with fewer tools to keep the economy humming steadily in an important political year.
北京。去年推动中国经济增长的财政宽松和强势房地产正在走弱，在政治上尤为重要的今年，决策者让经济持续繁荣的手段更少。
Pushed ahead by a torrent of credit and fiscal spending, the world’s second-largest economy clocked 6.7% growth for 2016, according to government data released Friday. Thou
gh the lowest pace in a quarter century, the rate was higher than many economists expected a year ago, when missteps over the stock market and currency policy raised questions about the government’s economic stewardship.
周五政府发布数据显示，在强信贷和财政支出的推动下，2016年，世界第二大经济体经济增长6.7%。尽管二十五年来速度最慢，这种增长速度还是比一年前多数经济学家的预测更快，当时股市和货币政策失误连连，外界对中国政府经济管理能力提出质疑。
Having won the battle for growth, Chinese leaders are now dealing with a too-frothy property market, high corporate debt and other aftereffects of last year’s policies. At the same time, officials and economists said, the leadership will only let growth moderate slightly, trying to keep the economy stable ahead of a reshuffling of the top echelon of the Communist Party later this year.
赢下保增长之战后，中国领导人要应对泡沫严重的资本市场、高企的公司债务和去年政策导致的其他后果。同时，官员和经济学家表示，在换届年，领导层将让增长有所缓和，保持经济稳定。
China’s leadership will tolerate a slower rate of growth this year—likely around 6.5%--to fend off asset bubbles and other financial risks that have become a leading priority, according to a senior government adviser.
中国领导层今年可以容忍更慢的增长率，可能在6.5%左右，以防范资产泡沫和其他金融风险，这已成为头号问题。
Given the political and economic pressures, economists expect Beijing to push on some of the same levers of stimulus as last year, though with less force and more care.
考虑到政治和经济方面的压力，经济学家预计中国政府会继续运用去年的刺激手段，但力度会有所减弱，使用会更加谨慎。
“High uncertainty means that Chinese economic policy makers will want to keep their options open,” said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics. “But at least the reasonable current growth momentum gives policy some leeway.”
“高度不确定性意味着中国的经济政策制定者想多一些选择。”牛津经济学研究所的路易斯-库吉斯说。“可至少当前合理的增长态势让政策制定有余地。”
At the top of the toolbox is bigger fiscal stimulus, especially spending on infrastructure, economists said. In 2016, China set a 3% target for its fiscal budget deficit to gross domestic product, up from 2.3% in 2015; economists estimate that last year’s actual deficit was closer to 3.5% when off-book spending is included. This year the level is likely to be higher still, they said.
政策工具中最首要的是更强的财政刺激，尤其对基础设施的指出，经济学家说。2016年，中国财政赤字目标占GDP的3%，2015年只有2.3%。经济学家预计，算上表外支出，去年实际财政赤字接近3.5%。他们称，今年的水平可能更高。
The reliance on such measures, economists said, is likely to delay needed reforms—the streamlining of state-owned companies and retooling the inefficient financial system—and set back a transformation of the Chinese economy.
经济学家说，太过依赖这些措施可能推迟所需的改革，如精简国企和再造无效的金融体系等，最终延缓中国经济转型。
China has announced plans to restructure the economy to avoid the middle-income trap, in which fast-growing economies fail to make the transition from low-cost, export-led manufacturing to domestic consumption and services.
中国公布计划推动经济转型，避免中等收入陷阱——即快速增长的经济体未能实现从低成本、出口导向的制造业转向国内消费和服务业。
Earlier this week, President Xi Jinping told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that China has entered a “new normal” of steady but sustainable growth fueled by household consumption and services.
本周初，习近平在瑞士达沃斯经济论坛说，中国进入“新常态”，家庭消费和服务业推动经济稳定、可持续增长。
New drivers of growth Beijing wants to nurture—consumption, high-tech and advanced manufacturing—still aren’t large enough or growing fast enough to compensate for a downturn in cement, steel and the other heavy industries that have powered the economy for years.
中国政府希望培育的新动能——消费、高科技和高端制造业——还不够强壮，增长不够快，不足以弥补过去推动经济增长的水泥、钢铁和其他重工业的衰落。
Consumption accounted for 64.6% of economic growth in 2016, 1.8 percentage points less than in 2015, according to official figures. While consumption is growing strongly, it decelerated to 10.4% year on year in 2016, from 10.7% in 2015.
官方数据显示，2016年，消费占经济增长的64.6%，比2015年少1.8个百分点。尽管消费增长强劲，但相比2015年10.7%的增速，2016年的数据是10.4%。
One boost to consumer spending—a surge in auto sales—is likely to slow this year as tax breaks are reduced. Growth in personal incomes, at 6.3% last year, is lagging the economy, a trend which if continued could dampen spending, economists said.
对消费的促进，如汽车消费，今年可能随着减税力度减小而放缓。去年个人收入的增长是6.3%，比经济增长慢，经济学家认为，如果这种趋势继续下去，会进一步压低支出。
Another spot of uncertainty lies in foreign trade, especially if the incoming Trump administration enacts punishing tariffs on Chinese goods, as the new U.S. president said he would do when he was campaigning.
另一个不确定的是外贸，尤其如果特朗普政府上台后对中国货物征收惩罚性关税。这位美国新总统竞选时扬言要这么做。
Beijing is likely to see a pickup, or improved performance, this year in private and manufacturing investment, financial services, a declining if still significant real-estate sector and steady government spending. Those are unlikely to outweigh the expected downdrafts, said economists.
中国政府今年可能在民间和制造业投资、金融服务、重要性有所降低但仍然不可忽视的房地产和持续的政府支出方面表现更好，但不大可能抵消可以预期的下行风险。
Beijing is also expected to dial back on easy credit, which boosted growth but propelled speculation in the housing market. Total social financing, a broad measure of credit that includes both bank loans and nonbank lending, reached 1.63 trillion yuan in December, 6% less than November’s increase and 10% less than the increase seen in December 2015.
预计中国政府将重回宽松信贷，这将促进增长，同时会引发地产市场投机。12月，包括银行贷款和非银行借贷在内的新增社会总融资达1.63万亿，比11月少6%，比2015年同期少10%。
The International Monetary Fund warned this week that continued reliance on debt-fueled investment risks a sharper slowdown or sharp drop in growth in coming years.
Housing prices rose 36.1% in 2016, the government said.
国际货币基金组织本周警告说，继续依赖债务进行投资，可能在未来几年导致硬着陆。政府数据显示，2016年，房地产价格增长36.1%。
To deal with the froth, more than 20 major cities have tightened purchase requirements—measures which are beginning to bite. In December, 46 of 70 cities tracked saw prices increase, compared with 55 in November and 62 in October, according to official figures.为应对泡沫，20多个主要城市提高购买标准，这些措施开始显现效果。官方数据显示，12月，70个大中城市中有46个房产价格增长，11月是55个，10月是62个。
评论 (0)