"隔壁老王有一个好消息，一个坏消息。
好消息是上一波6.9换的美元差不多解套了，而且当时从股市撤退换美元之后中国股市又大跌。坏消息是最近要去欧洲旅游，人民币贬值让各种东西贵的很多。
人民币究竟会如何走，现在要换美元吗？最悲观的看法是今后也可能一天你就没换美元的机会了，不晓得有没有记得，08金融风暴的时候，全韩国爱国要求把美元和黄金交给国家！
BNPP的预测是，人民币会到7，但起码现在人民币不会大贬，因为中国央行都没有出来说要捍卫人民币之类的话语。"
1、我们预计，在央行重新将外汇储备风险金调到20%之后，美元兑美元继续升值。
2、FX外汇储备要求支持我们关于10年期中国政府债券的观点
What is the FX reserve requirement?
It is a counter-cyclical measure previously implemented in September 2015 then reduced to 0% in September 2017. The term ‘buying FX forwards’ denotes several types of operations:
Onshore forward FX contracts where clients will receive FX in the future
Onshore FX swaps and cross currency swaps in which clients do not exchange a principal in the near-leg but receive FX in the far-leg
Onshore buy or sell options that allow clients to receive FX in the future
Offshore transactions as above, but where the position is squared onshore When are payments due? The reserve payment is made monthly. The 20% requirement is applied to the notional size of the FX forward-buying signed during the previous month.
Who pays the 20% requirement?
The 20% is paid by the banks, not the client. The bank puts FX at the PBoC as a reserve and does not receive any interest on it. As such, the bank will charge the interest loss from the client in the form of higher forward pips. This could increase the spread between buying and selling FX forwards for the end client.
How is this different from the current regulation?
Extra cost in pips = USD funding cost × 20% × USDCNY spot Currently, the extra cost for those who buy USDRMB forward from a bank will be roughly 3% × 20% × 6.85 = 411 pips, assuming 3% is the 1-year USD funding cost1, and 6.85 the USDCNY spot. 411 pips is much higher than the level when the ratio was removed in September 2017, when the 1y USD funding cost was about 1.8% and USDCNY at 6.5, which amounts to 234 pips.
Why the FX reserve requirement?
On the morning of Friday 3 August, a communiqué from the financial stability and development committee meeting, held by China’s vice-premier Liu He, mentioned the promotion of balanced international payments. Later in the evening, the PBoC announced the reserve requirement. We think this may not have been a coincidence, but rather an active move by policymakers to calm the FX market. 1 Assuming a rate roughly between 1y USD LIBOR
外汇储备的要求是什么？
这是2015年9月以前实施的反周期措施，然后在2017年9月下降到0%。“购买外汇远期”一词表示几种操作：在岸远期外汇合约客户将在未来收到外汇
在岸外汇掉期和跨境掉期交易，其中客户不在近股兑换本金，而是在远期接收外汇。
在未来允许客户接收外汇的在岸买卖期权
What could be PBoC’s next steps?
下一步中国央行会怎么干？
The PBoC may follow up with the reintroduction of the offshore RMB deposit reserve requirement, which was initiated in January 2016, partially removed in September 2017 and entirely removed in May 2018. In its 3 August press release, the PBoC claimed it would “initiate a counter-cyclical adjustment based on the development of the situation”. This implies that any intervention will be market-dependent. We expect the central bank to focus more on the pace of RMB depreciation and less on the spot level. We expect the PBoC to keep rates on hold. We think the PBoC is unlikely to hike the interbank rate – a tactic that could be used to fight the pressure on RMB FX – anytime soon. The reintroduction of the FX forward reserve requirement is likely to remind the market of what happened in 2015 and 2016, when the PBoC lowered domestic RMB rates while defending RMB FX separately. Therefore, we still recommend being long 10-year China government bonds, initiated at 3.50% and now at 3.45%.
中国央行的下一步举措是什么？
PBoC可能会继续推行离岸人民币存款准备金，此要求于2016年1月开始，部分在2017年9月取消。2018年5月完全拆除。在8月3日的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行声称它将“发起”基于形势发展的反周期调整。这意味着任何干预将取决于市场。我们预计央行将更多地关注人民币贬值的步伐，而不是在当场的水平。我们预计央行会保持利率不变。我们认为中国人民银行不太可能让。
银行同业拆借利率走高——一种可以随时应对人民币汇率压力的策略。
外汇远期准备金要求的重新引入可能会提醒市场
发生在2015和2016，当时中国人民银行降低了国内人民币汇率，同时进行了辩护。人民币汇率另行规定。因此，我们还是建议看多10年的中国政府债券，开始于3.50%，现在为3.45%。
我们坚持认为美元兑美元可能达到7。CNY的主要驱动力，金尚未受到压力。注意不需要银行同业外汇远期交易。支付准备金此外，在岸人民币外汇市场的低远期点帮助金融业以降低长期美元仓位的成本。
此外，银行间流动性仍然很高，中美利率差异很有可能。如果美联储可能在2018年9月走高，将继续缩小。因此，说潮水已经转向人民币为时过早，特别是因为中国人民银行没有表明它是不顾一切地捍卫人民币。
中金公司：中国央行观察7 月外储继续攀升，显示央行对汇率干预十分有限 7 月中国外汇
储备数据点评 7 月中国外汇储备进一步上升 58 亿美元至 31,179 亿美元，对比上月上 升 15 亿美元。尽管市场预计 7 月外储将下降 50 亿美元左右，但数据表 明外储仍在继续上升（图表 1）。以 SDR 计值，7 月外储亦上升 68 亿至 22,194 亿。此外，7 月中国黄金储备保持在 5,924 万盎司（即 1,842.6 吨） 不变，对应美元估值环比下降 2.4%至 723 亿美元。 7 月估值效应对外储的影响大体中性。美元指数略走强 0.1%，其中美元 兑英镑升值 0.6%，兑日元升值 1.0%，兑欧元持平。根据我们测算的中国 外储货币构成1，7 月由汇率波动引起的负向估值效应约为 30 亿美元左 右（图表 2）。但另一方面，7 月美股上涨幅度较为明显，可能会对外储 中股票资产的估值有所提振。 尽管（在岸及离岸）人民币贬值有所加速且波动性大幅上升，外储进一 步上升表明央行对汇率干预十分有限。根据我们大体的匡算，外储变动 隐含的外汇净流入在 86 亿美元左右（图表 2）。7 月人民币汇率贬值有 所加速——兑美元贬值 2.9%，兑一篮子货币贬值 3.4%，主要是由于短期 对人民币需求减弱2。但另一方面，我们此前多次强调，本轮人民币贬值 预期及其带来的资本外流压力可能不及 2015-16 年——目前人民币卖盘 中狭义的纯“投机”头寸并不高，且并没有出现大规模外汇流出的现象 （7 月外储数据可能印证了这一观点，而我们此后将通过央行外汇占款 数据进一步确认）。
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