前日美股大涨带来的欢愉气氛在欧洲时间很快衰退，意大利预算进入新一轮讨价还价环节，而Trump挥舞汽车关税的旗帜以及市场在G20会议前的谨慎心态，促使美股回调。FOMC会议纪要表明美联储可能会重归data-dependent模式
https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/MTcxODcxNzYxNQ==
11.30.2018 Fri， Sunny， Air Polluted
Summary：前日美股大涨带来的欢愉气氛在欧洲时间很快衰退，意大利预算进入新一轮讨价还价环节，而Trump挥舞汽车关税的旗帜以及市场在G20会议前的谨慎心态，促使美股回调。FOMC会议纪要表明美联储可能会重归data-dependent模式，为Powell和经济学家的操守挽回一定颜面。近期关键还是要看周日早上的晚餐。
Euro Session:
Instead of trade lower, USTs surged in Tokyo time with multiple stops being clipped through New York''s high. Led by the belly, the curve rallied 3-3.52 bps which was very rare in Asia session. Asia bourses traded mixed with A share underperforming most.
EU markets gapped higher following the rally in US, especially in EGBs. The Carnival of rates peaked around close to 5:00 Beijing time with TY hit through 3.00%
There was not too much new development with regrads to Brexit or budget. AS to former, BOE warned that U.K. economy could suffer its worst slump since WWII if May''s Brexit plan fails and Britain crashes out of the EU. In a worst-case scenario the economy would shrink 8% within a year, the pound slump 25%, and property prices plunge almost a third. As to the latter, Salvini was reported that he won''t discuss budget deficit below 2.2% of GDP.
The sentiment followed US peers overnight soon faded with all these concerns trapped in mud. Besides , Just after EU closed, news said German auto executives were invited to the Whitehouse next Tuesday to discuss trade and manufacturing. To admit it or not, the auto tariff is belly dancing again.
Economy data:
3:45, FRA Q3 GDP s 0.4% vs 0.4%, pre 0.4%
4:55, DEU Nov unemployment rate 5% vs 5.1%, record low, prior 5.1%
5:30, UK mortgage approved 67.1k vs 64.6k ,prior 65.3k
6:00, EMU Nov F consumer confidence -3.9 vs -3.9, pre -3.9
9:00, EMU Nov pre HICP 0.1% mom vs 0.2% , prior 0.1%; 2.2% yoy vs 2.3%, prior 2.4%
https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/LTE3MjE4ODMyMjA=
US Session:
USTs spent much of the US session retreating from their day highs in London time with TY rebounding to as high as 3.0425. U.S. stocks fluctuated as investors awaited a clear signal on trade while an improvement in expectations for their meeting limited the downside room for US equities after the big rally. Around 11:00, Trump told reporters as he departed the White House to travel to Buenos Aires that he is very close to “doing something” with China. 3:00,we have FOMC minutes. From the November FOMC minutes, we can figure a December rate hike is quite likely, but after that, decisions about further increases will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis(short for mtg-by-mtg, quite hot! ). To be noted, the minutes show almost all FOMC participants believe another rate hike “was likely to be warranted soon”. Many participants thought it would be appropriate to transition to language with greater emphasis on “evaluation of incoming data” to “convey the committee’s flexible approach.” Could they are saying data-dependent?
https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/MjA5NzY3Njc3MQ==
Other news, the new NAFTA agreement would be signed on Friday in Buenos Aires. Cohen pleaded guilty to a new federal charge and agreed to cooperate with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Trump called him a liar and “weak”. Trump cancelled a planned meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin over Ukraine
https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/NTc5ODQ3MzEw
Economy data:
9；30， US Oct personal income 0.5% vs 0.4%, prior 0.2%
PCE 0.6% vs 0.4%, prior 0.4% revised down to 0.2%
PCE deflator 2.0% yoy 2.1%, prior 2.0%
core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, 1.8%yoy vs 1.9%, prior 2.0% revised down to 1.9%
https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/Njc0MzQ5NzI0
Key Data And Events Ahead:
UK nationwide house price index,
FRA CPI
CAN GDP
US Chicago purchasing manager index, hilgy leading effect, and the consensus is stable
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