Yen depreciation accelerates
2022-06-02 00:34:20
#acceleration#banking#devaluationThe Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting will run for two days from April 27. In the context of the widening of the Japan-US interest rate gap, the depreciation of the yen is accelerating, and whether to "fine-tune" another dimension of monetary easing measures is the biggest focus.
-- The Bank of Japan's April 27-28 monetary policy meeting received unprecedented market attention. Is there a "correction" in monetary easing?
The main scenario is "maintaining the policy status quo".
Indeed, the Bank of Japan's "yield curve control" (YCC, manipulation of short- and long-term interest rates) has accelerated the yen's depreciation. At this point, however, the government and the BOJ have agreed that "this inflation will not be dealt with through monetary tightening, but households and businesses vulnerable to higher prices will be dealt with through fiscal policies such as subsidies and benefits." it seems that.
Also, actually modifying YCC is not easy. Although there may be some minor revisions to the outer parts of the policy, such as "forward guidance" implying the future of interest rates, the YCC of the "Honmaru" is likely to remain unchanged at this meeting.
──Why did the Bank of Japan choose to maintain the status quo?
The quarterly outlook report ("Economic and Price Outlook") will be released at this meeting, but the consumer price (core CPI excluding fresh food) outlook will be revised up 1% from the previous 1% and is expected to be revised upward to the second half of the table .
However, under the assumption that the overseas inflation factor disappears after 2023, the economic growth outlook will be lowered, and the core CPI will fall again. It is likely to conclude that "a change of policy in the direction of monetary tightening is inappropriate in the context of cost-push inflation."
-- The Bank of Japan's April 27-28 monetary policy meeting received unprecedented market attention. Is there a "correction" in monetary easing?
The main scenario is "maintaining the policy status quo".
Indeed, the Bank of Japan's "yield curve control" (YCC, manipulation of short- and long-term interest rates) has accelerated the yen's depreciation. At this point, however, the government and the BOJ have agreed that "this inflation will not be dealt with through monetary tightening, but households and businesses vulnerable to higher prices will be dealt with through fiscal policies such as subsidies and benefits." it seems that.
Also, actually modifying YCC is not easy. Although there may be some minor revisions to the outer parts of the policy, such as "forward guidance" implying the future of interest rates, the YCC of the "Honmaru" is likely to remain unchanged at this meeting.
──Why did the Bank of Japan choose to maintain the status quo?
The quarterly outlook report ("Economic and Price Outlook") will be released at this meeting, but the consumer price (core CPI excluding fresh food) outlook will be revised up 1% from the previous 1% and is expected to be revised upward to the second half of the table .
However, under the assumption that the overseas inflation factor disappears after 2023, the economic growth outlook will be lowered, and the core CPI will fall again. It is likely to conclude that "a change of policy in the direction of monetary tightening is inappropriate in the context of cost-push inflation."
