https://bang.wallstreetcn.com/MjA1NTM5NTIy
09,03.2018, Mon， Sunny， Air Polluted
Summary：在美国市场三天长假之前，欧美市场表现平静，美债月末效应被卖盘压力完美抵消。本周数据密集，多位央行人士讲话，但重点还是在贸易。
Euro Session:
CSI300 had a choppy time which fell in the morning and failed to rebound in the afternoon while the quality of the official manu PMI rising from 54 to 54.2 need to be justified by Caixin on Monday. To my surprise, no month-end activity with USTs were under off tone all through Asia time.
As to Italy issues, Tria was reported that he doesn’t intend to breach the EU’s limit as he seeks at least a 1.5% deficit/GDP ratio in the country’s budget, which is being prepared. And ECB''S Nowotny signaled Italian woes shouldn''t delay rate hikes which sent EUR higher ,but soon was offset by the miss of Germany retail sales.
Economy data:
2:00 GE July retail sales -0.4% vs -0.2%, prior 1.2% mom; 0.8% yoy vs 1.3% yoy, prior 3% revised down to 2.7%.
GB Aug Nationwide house px -0.5% mom vs 0.1%, prior 0.6% revised up to 0.7%; 2.0% yoy vs 2.7%, prior 2.5%.
2:55, FR Aug HICP 0.6% mom vs 0.5%, prior -0.1%; 2.6% yoy vs 2.5%, prior 2.6%.
US Session:
Ahead of the long weekend – US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday today – it was a predictably quiet session on Friday. SPX spent most of the session modestly in the red – but by no more than 0.3% – before eventually closing flat. Treasuries are struggling to finish lower by the end of NYT. Month-end buying took place earlier than usual and the market was quietly drifting lower all afternoon. While the US and Canada failed to strike a deal on Friday, talks are expected to resume on Wednesday. To be noted , Trudeau also said that Canada will only sign a “good” NAFTA deal, and that a win-win-win scenario is still possible.
Economy data:
Canada July product prices -0.2% m/m vs -0.4% consensus.
US Chicago Purchasing Manager survey for August 63.6, vs. 63.0 consensus and 65.5 prior.
U-Michigan Survey August final, consumer sentiment 96.2 vs. 95.5 consensus and 95.3 prior. Current conditions up to 110.3 from 107.8 prior, expectations to 87.1 from 87.3 prior. 1-year inflation expectations up to 3.0% from 2.9% and 5-10 year inflation expectations up to 2.6% from 2.5%
Key Data And Events Ahead:
Data Heavy !
Mon: EC, UK, DEU, FRA, ITA Mfg PMI. Jpn Capital spending (Q2), Mfg PMI
Tue: BOE’s Carney, Haldane, Tenreyro, and Saunders are all scheduled to testify before parliament
Wed: ROC meeting, EC,GE, IT, FR markit PMI
Thur: US ADP, GE factory order, US markit PMI, ISM NON-MANU index, factory orders, durable goods orders
Fri: US NFP,DEU UK IP, EC GDP Q2F
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