09.26.2018 Thur， Sunny， Air Polluted
Summary：市场对脱欧协议达成还是充满信心，对于意大利预算较好解决也充满期待。Trump再次强调贸易进展和美国优先，开始影响到美国市场。美国国债2年期和5年期拍卖遇冷，而2年期浮息券受追捧，反应出市场的某种担忧。
Euro Session:
Asia equities was actually not too bad while A share saw a pretty weak session. On the contrary to the CSI300 weakness, the tapes was crowded with the resignation of Rod Rosenstein was reported to be drafted and the hearing of Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh made appearance on FOX tv , addressing the sexual misconduct allegations. Kavanaugh’s former Yale classmate Deborah Ramirez alleging the judge exposed himself to her at a party, which also made her the third accuser following California professor Christine Blasey Ford. This did make him looking less than certain .
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EU equities opened flat and Core rates in EU gapped higher while periphery lower led by BTP. According to recent reports, deficit Triia asked is between 1.6% and 2.0% while Saivini only expect 1.8, which left Di Maio demanding 2.8% with his own and 5SM approval rate declining. Market was obviously optimistic about the well solution of Italy budget issues.
The selling off of UST followed the core EU rates going up while 10yr UST broke 3.10% around 3:50. Since the block report on cmegroup.com was quiet, this price action could be led by cash which was really rare ever since.
EU chief economist Praet stood out to defend Draghi''s hawkish speech. He noted the further easing policy was needed to make sure economy growth and inflation acceleration. The EURO bull was hit while the spread of US-GERMANY did not justify the EUR strength. Praet also succeed in stopping the selling off of cores. Shortly after Merkel said "U.K.-EU exit deal “might already be achievable in October", EUR and GBP got boosted again.
Economy data:
no
US Session:
US equities opened well coupled with UST paring its earlier loss. But after Trump began his address at UN, all the main three indexes drifted lower into the late session with automobile and utility companies weighing; the tech heavy Nasdaq clinging to small gains. Treasuries off the lows after a block trade in ultra bond futures weighed at around 3 o''clock.
11:30,US Treasury reopened 2-year FRN ,competitive and non-competitive totaled 17bn. Dealers took 33.4%, direct bidders took 8% and indirect bidders took 57.5%.
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1:00, US Treasury issued $38bn of 5-year notes at a high yield of 2.997%, a 0.4bp tail vs. the WI 1:00pm level. Dealers took 32.9% of the issue, direct bidders took 9.2% and indirect bidders took 57.9%.
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Shortly after 10:00, Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly reinforced his general “America First” approach to policy. He said he wants “fair and reciprocal trade” around the world, but defended his current trade policies by citing “China’s market distortions and the way they deal” will not be tolerated. Trump also spoke negatively of OPEC, saying that they are “ripping off the rest of the world” and that they have “horrible prices.” Since his stress on trade tension, ADXY reacted swiftly. But Canada officially declared there could be no NAFTA deal before the mid-election.
Economy data:
US September Conference Board consumer confidence 138.4, vs. 132.1 , prior 133.4 revised up to 134.7.The increase was mostly due to the expectations( 115.3 vs 109.3),which also hit their highest level since Sept 2000.
Key Data And Events Ahead:
FRA EMU consumer confidence, EMU M3 supply
DEU CPI
US whole sale inventory, GDP, core PCE, Durable goods
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