副总统万斯。（路透）
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
副总统万斯4日在社群媒体发文指出，共和党在期中选举大败是因为伊朗战争。他表示，所有支持伊朗战者的人都必须面对一个事实，那就是把持多年的国会掌控权结果因此拱手让人。开票之夜的3日晚间，川普总统接受纽约时报访问时则表示，不后悔对伊朗开战。川普说，这场战争对美国与全世界都非常重要。
万斯贴文表示：“我们败选原因就是这场战争。”
他指出，所有坦诚的对话都必须以此做为起点。
他指出：“如果想要争辩说这是值得的，说失去未来六年参院掌控权是值得的，那就去做吧。”
万斯表示，如果要争辨值得为伊朗战争付出代价，无论赞同与否，至少彼此坦白，“但每个人都心知肚明我们为何会输”。
以下为万斯贴文全文：
我们这边的数据分析师最着迷的事情之一就是“选民结构”——选民组成是否足够接近2024年的状况，让共和党得以胜选。尽管民调显示民主党将大获全胜，但数据却不断告诉我们同一个故事：在某些州，投票率还算可以；在其他州，投票率简直惊人；而且没有任何一个州的投票率出现灾难性的低迷。我们团队内部确实弥漫着一股乐观情绪：我们的支持者有出来投票。
因此，我问了我所认识最聪明的数据专家：这是否意味着我们将震撼全世界？“不，”他告诉我。“我们的表现可能会比民调显示的更好。但数据告诉我们，许多2024年支持川普与万斯（Trump/Vance）的选民现在感到非常愤怒，并打算投给对手。我们的选民确实有出来投票，但他们可能不会投给我们。”
如今看来，这番话简直是精准的神预言。我们的选民确实出来投票了。以佛罗里达州为例，共和党选民比民主党选民多出了9个百分点，仅比2024年的状况微幅下滑几个百分点。无庸置疑，我们在某些地区的催票工作本可以做得更好。但内核问题并不在于投票率。内核问题在于，许多在2024年投票给川普与万斯的人，在2026年选择了民主党。
对于究竟发生了什么事以及背后的原因，接下来势必会有一场激烈的内斗与争论。一位我非常尊敬的民调专家告诉我，我们在选战冲刺阶段的经济政见宣传不够尖锐。我相信这确实是事实。
但我们败选的真正原因，对几乎所有人来说都心照不宣。
另一位民调专家——也是我在政坛所认识最聪明的人之一——昨天告诉我，我们在政党票选情（generic ballot）上会输掉13个百分点。在进入周二投票日之前我心情确实偏向消极，但连我都对这个数字感到震惊。在他的民调中，他发现许多2024年支持川普的选民非常愤怒，并打算投给民主党。他询问了这些背弃我们的选民，是什么原因能让他们重新回到我们的阵营。前四大答案几乎涵盖了所有的回应：
1）结束战争
2）专注于生活成本／通货膨胀
3）贯彻“美国优先”
4）改变我们与以色列的关系
我们的选民出来投票了。而上述四个原因，正是许多人转而投给民主党的主因。这是根据一位精准预测结果的民调专家所做的调查。当许多人在周一围剿坎波斯－达菲（Rachel Campos-Duffy）、只因她呼吁通过外交途径解决冲突时，事实证明她的政治建议是切中要害的。（她也是个非常好的人。）
在接下来的几个月里，将会出现大量的“情绪情绪勒索与洗脑”（gaslighting）。准备好听见无数建制派政治人物声称，解决我们困境的妙方是“移民大赦”。我对于应该改变执法方式抱持开放态度——例如更专注于开罚雇用非法劳工的企业。但任何鼓吹大赦的人都是在对你撒谎。
我们败选的原因就是战争。总统本人昨晚也这么说了。
如果你想争辩这一切都是值得的，争辩输掉未来6年的参议院控制权是值得的，那就开诚布公地去争辩吧。去主张这是一个值得付出的代价。无论赞同与否，至少那才是坦诚的态度。
但每个人都心知肚明我们为什么会输。任何关于我们未来该何去何从的坦诚对话，都必须从这里开始。
我对我们的国家依然抱持希望。对于那些感到气愤、想说“我早就跟你说过了”的人：你是对的，你确实提醒过我们。请带着这股力量，去支持并选出与你拥有相同世界观的共和党人。对于那些单纯对选举结果感到气愤的人，你确实该感到愤怒。让我们转化这股怒火，重新投入拯救我们国家的工作。
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