Accelerated development! PV costs in Japan fall.
2022-06-20 01:21:15
#acceleration#energy#costUnder the "business as usual" scenario, Japan's installed PV capacity is expected to reach 111GW by 2025, rising to 154GW by 2030. However, a new analysis by RTS Corporation shows that under the more ambitious "accelerated development" scenario, Japan could have installed PV capacity of 115GW by 2025 and 180GW by 2030.
The "business-as-usual" scenario assumes that Japan continues its current energy policy, reduces PV system costs, and has no external shocks or pressures. On the other hand, the “accelerated development” scenario predicts a more favorable policy environment, with further reductions in PV product costs and the emergence of new markets.
Assuming a steady decline in Japan's feed-in tariffs, under a "business as usual" scenario, annual PV installations could reach 8GW by 2025 and 9GW by 2030, the solar consultancy said.
Japan aims to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The same market forces that affect the global PV industry have also affected Japan, such as "a shortage of raw materials leading to higher prices for PV modules, a shortage of semiconductors leading to the suspension of shipments of inverters and issues related to polysilicon production in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region."
In the report, RTS Corporation estimated Japan's installed PV capacity in 2030 by application, capacity range, area, and more, assuming that the cost of all PV systems will drop significantly by 2030.
RTS Corporation predicts that the price of residential PV systems (less than 10kW) will drop from the current 235 yen/W ($1.76/W) to about 125 yen/W ($0.9/W) in 2030, with small Photovoltaic systems (10kW-50kW) will drop to a similar level from the current 194 yen/W.
The same is expected for mid- and large-scale solar projects, with all four system types expected to drop to JPY 100-150/W in 2030 under a "business-as-usual" scenario.
In October last year, the Japanese government's cabinet approved a plan to raise the national target of renewable energy in the power generation mix to 36%-38% by 2030.
The "business-as-usual" scenario assumes that Japan continues its current energy policy, reduces PV system costs, and has no external shocks or pressures. On the other hand, the “accelerated development” scenario predicts a more favorable policy environment, with further reductions in PV product costs and the emergence of new markets.
Assuming a steady decline in Japan's feed-in tariffs, under a "business as usual" scenario, annual PV installations could reach 8GW by 2025 and 9GW by 2030, the solar consultancy said.
Japan aims to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The same market forces that affect the global PV industry have also affected Japan, such as "a shortage of raw materials leading to higher prices for PV modules, a shortage of semiconductors leading to the suspension of shipments of inverters and issues related to polysilicon production in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region."
In the report, RTS Corporation estimated Japan's installed PV capacity in 2030 by application, capacity range, area, and more, assuming that the cost of all PV systems will drop significantly by 2030.
RTS Corporation predicts that the price of residential PV systems (less than 10kW) will drop from the current 235 yen/W ($1.76/W) to about 125 yen/W ($0.9/W) in 2030, with small Photovoltaic systems (10kW-50kW) will drop to a similar level from the current 194 yen/W.
The same is expected for mid- and large-scale solar projects, with all four system types expected to drop to JPY 100-150/W in 2030 under a "business-as-usual" scenario.
In October last year, the Japanese government's cabinet approved a plan to raise the national target of renewable energy in the power generation mix to 36%-38% by 2030.
